May 15, 2025 2025 Automotive Trade Manual, SA Trade Data, naamsa / The Automotive Business Council
2025 Automotive Trade Manual released by naamsa / The Automotive Business Council
The Automotive Business Council released its second Automotive Trade Manual 2025 publication, previously published by naamsa under the banner of the Automotive Industry Export Council [AIEC]. This iconic publication is the official source of all automotive trade data and other relevant information to the automotive industry in South Africa.
In a taxing year, the domestic automotive industry in 2024, for the first time since the 2020 pandemic, encountered a modest downturn in both domestic new vehicle sales and vehicle exports. This can be attributed to several factors, including persistent inflationary pressures, climate effects on operations and geopolitical instability. Consequently, the export value of vehicles and automotive components reflected a decrease of R2,0 billion, or 0,7%, from the record R270,8 billion in 2023 to R268,8 billion in 2024, comprising 14,7% of total South African exports. Vehicle exports declined to 390 844 units in 2024, down from the record 399 809 units exported in 2023. However, the vehicle export value still increased by R1,5 billion from R203,9 billion in 2023 to a record R205,4 billion in 2024 due to the change in the mix of vehicles exported.
Automotive component exports reflected a decrease of R3,5 billion from R66,9 billion in 2023 to R63,4 billion in 2024.
The domestic automotive industry exported to 155 countries in 2024, up from the148
destinations in 2023; with the export value more than doubling in the case of 39 of these countries from 2023 to 2024. As the jewel and largest manufacturing sector in South Africa’s economy, a substantial 22,6% of value addition within the domestic manufacturing output was derived from vehicle and automotive component manufacturing in 2024, while the broader automotive industry’s contribution to the GDP
comprised 5,2% (3,2% manufacturing and 2,0% retail).
Despite a stronger year-end performance supported by strong seasonal sales to the vehicle rental industry, easing inflation and two interest rate cuts, new vehicle sales decreased by 3,0% to 515 850 units in 2024, compared to the 531 552 units sold in 2023. The confluence of positive economic indicators and the resilience of the passenger car segment during the last quarter of 2024 suggest a potential rebound for the new vehicle market in 2025 to return to the pre-pandemic level after five years.
Compared to global standards, the trading environment in South Africa remained extremely competitive, and in 2024, there were no less than 50 passenger car brands and 2 203 model derivatives, the greatest selection of market-size ratio found globally. Similarly, in the light commercial vehicle segment, for the same period, there were 26 brands with 599 model derivatives to choose from. Modern consumers don’t just want access to all the latest models and technologies in the world, but they also want an affordable price. Total new vehicle revenue, based on the recommended retail prices, amounted to R283,6 billion in 2024.
NEV sales reflected another impressive increase of 100,6% from 7 782 units in 2023 to 15 611 units in 2024, following the year on year increase of 65,8% in 2023. NEV sales share, by 21 brands, as a percentage of total new vehicle sales, increased to a notable 3,0% in 2024, up from 1,47% in 2023.
As an export-oriented industry, the automotive industry, since 2024, is facing a severe crisis as the unpredictability of rising tariffs and a looming trade war is causing a state of chronic uncertainty. Unlike past crises, the long-term implications of these tariffs are unclear, complicating production planning and investment decisions that typically stretch years ahead Trade agreements remain essential for South Africa as they create a framework that facilitates smoother, more cost-effective, and competitive trade between countries. South Africa has advantageous access to world markets through free trade agreements with major markets such as Europe and the UK, is part of the SADC free trade area as well as a key member of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Exports to the EU, the domestic automotive industry’s top export region, increased to a record R156,7 billion in 2024 while exports to Africa, its second largest export region, increased to a record R48,1 billion. Germany remained the top country export destination with an export value of R79,1 billion in 2024. A significant 68,7% of light vehicle production was exported in 2024. Europe continued to dominate as a region and accounted for a substantial 75,7%, or three out of every four vehicles exported in
2023, with 52,1% of light vehicle production destined for the region.
With the rapid transition toward EVs in major export regions, the demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is decreasing. The legislation to ban the sales of new ICE vehicles in the EU and the UK by 2035 in favour of EVs, with the legislation in some countries, such as Germany, already commencing in 2030, is not just about creating a greener future. For the domestic automotive industry to remain part of this global supply chain it is imperative for South Africa to accelerate the implementation of EV-friendly policies or risk losing its edge in the global automotive manufacturing sector.
In 2024, automotive component exports decreased by R3,4 billion, or 5,2%, to R63,4 billion, from R66,9 billion in 2023, mainly due to the decline in catalytic converter exports. However, catalytic converters remained the top automotive component exported from South Africa, comprising 30,4% of total automotive component exports, followed by engine parts, tyres and transmission shafts and cranks.
Imports of light vehicles (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) increased by 2,6% from 296 767 units in 2023 to 304 355 units in 2024. New light vehicles imported into South Africa originated from 24 countries. The top country of origin, in volume terms, for passenger cars and LCVs imported into South Africa in 2024 was India, with 173 742 vehicles, accounting for 57,1% of the total light vehicles imported, while China cemented its second position, accounting for 17,1%. Several global brands have established India as a production hub for small car plants, and most of the vehicles imported from India fell in the small car and entry-level segments.
The rising demand for affordable vehicles has been creating new opportunities for brands to enter the domestic market while offering consumers a wider variety of choices. South Africa welcomed no less than six different Chinese brands in 2024, on top of the three brands that launched in 2023. Altogether, there were 14 different brands from China operating in the domestic new vehicle market in 2024, with more to follow in 2025.
Imports of OE components by the seven domestic OEMs decreased by R13,0 billion, or 8,1%, to R147,4 billion in 2024, from R160,4 billion in 2023, in line with the 5,2% year-on-year decrease in vehicle production in 2024. Replacement parts for a vehicle parc of 13,36 million vehicles remain high, considering that 78,0% of passenger cars sold in the domestic market were imported in 2024. In 2024, the import of replacement parts increased by a substantial R15,3 billion, or 17,1%, to R104,8 billion, up from the R89,5 billion in 2023. The high level of imports from China is indicative of the country’s dominant influence and cost competitiveness in the global automotive environment
Globally, following a substantial year-on-year gain of 10,2% in 2023, global vehicle production consolidated in 2024, decreasing by 1,0% to reach 92,5 million vehicles, down from the 93,5 million units produced in 2023. In 2024, 16 countries exceeded the one million vehicle production mark, which is regarded as the international benchmark. China continued to strengthen its position as the world’s automotive powerhouse in 2024 owing to expanding EV production, with total vehicle production of 31,3 million units, comfortably remaining the world’s biggest market, followed by the US with 10,6 million units, Japan with 8,2 million units and India with 6,0 million units.
South Africa forms part of the group of global second-tier countries producing below one million vehicles per annum. The country’s vehicle production decreased by 5,2%, from 632 362 units in 2023 to 599 755 units in 2024, exceeding the global year-on-year decrease in global vehicle production of 1,0% in 2024. South Africa’s global vehicle production market share thus decreased from 0,67% in 2023 to 0,65% in 2024, although its global vehicle production ranking improved from 22nd to 21st in view of the poorer performance by Italy. In terms of global bakkie production, the country was ranked 15th, with a market share of 1,05%. South Africa remained the dominant
market on the African continent, and accounted for 50,9% of the total African vehicle production of 1 177 400 vehicles in 2024.
The year 2024 turned out to be another record year for EVs, with worldwide sales surging by 25,7% to 17,1 million units, up from 13,6 million units in 2023. Chinese EV sales soared by 38,2% to 11,2 million units year-on-year in 2024, accounting for about 64% of global electric vehicle sales. The Tesla Model Y was again the best-selling passenger car model in 2024, topping 1,09 million units.
The substantial additional tax allowance of 150% from March 2026 for domestic electric vehicle producers is a promising sign for its sustainable energy policies. This move not only supports climate goals but also augurs well for the country’s economic future amid its evolving new energy vehicle (NEV) road map. As these policies unfold, they could attract further investments and potentially reshape market dynamics. With the inevitable transition to EVs, the decisions taken over the next three to four years are imperative, as they are going to affect what the future manufacturing footprint looks like in South Africa, along with the domestic automotive industry’s contribution to the economy and the profile of vehicles manufactured and sold in the country.
While the domestic automotive industry celebrated a centenary of vehicle manufacturing in the country in 2024, naamsa will commemorate its 90th anniversary this year and the industry is keen for 2025 to turn out to be another memorable year.
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