Jan 12, 2022 Pieter Wessels, Lightstone Auto, scan volumes,
Total scans in 2021 60% up on 2020
Vehicle sales have always been a clear indicator of the automotive market’s performance. Another indicator, and one that foreshadows sales performance, is scan volumes.
Scans on LIVE are an indicator of “intention to sell”. Increased scans can be interpreted as increased activity from owners looking to sell and purchase vehicles. Pieter Wessels, Managing Director of Lightstone Auto, highlights a positive increase in scans, “While the Covid-19 lockdown restrictions continue to affect the performance of the South African retail motor sector, scans on LIVE exceeded pre-Covid-19 levels in May of last year and, although growth slowed in July of 2021 as the country entered Level 4 lockdown, activity swiftly moved to the same growth levels seen in March and April as lockdown restrictions eased.”
The cumulative number of scans (see graph below) was 60.46% higher by the end of September 2021 than they were in September 2020.
Scans on LIVE can be broken down into three products – Verification, Valuation, and Validation.
As the graph below demonstrates, Validations tapered off towards the end of 2020 after a strong recovery following the hard lockdown earlier that year. However, Validations increased dramatically in February 2021 with a 44.4% month-on-month increase from January.
High volume months in vehicle Validations are often followed by lower volumes but the general trend of higher scan numbers is evident throughout 2021.
Vehicle Verifications have been more stable since lockdown and, in May 2021, were higher than pre-Covid-19 levels.
Vehicle Valuations are a much smaller proportion of LIVE scans but are slowly increasing back to levels seen before Covid-19.
Applications on Signio are reflecting the impact of lockdowns on the economy.
“The graph above tells the story: total applications fell sharply in the first half of 2020, with March and April being the worst hit by the first hard lockdowns in South Africa, however, we then see Signio applications recover quickly to pre-Covid-19 levels, with August to December registering higher volumes than the comparative period the year before. By September, total applications were more than 30% higher than in September 2019.” Pieter Wessels adds.
After a slow start in 2021, application volumes continued to increase and were 40.85% higher in March compared to the same month in 2020. Volumes in 2021 are comparable with 2019.
Applications in April 2021 were 782% higher than in April 2020, per the graph above, which demonstrates the magnitude of the collapse during South Africa’s first hard lockdown in that year.
After the Level 4 Lockdown in July 2021, application volumes have been struggling to keep up with comparable months in 2020.
The graph above demonstrates how the positive growth in March pushed Signio applications in 2021 ahead of 2020’s numbers: total applications were 12.67% higher by the end of March 2021 compared to March 2020.
At the end of September 2021, total applications were 20.28% higher than in September 2020. Applications have slowed since the Level 4 Lockdown in July 2021.
The number of paid-out deals on Signio fell by 24% in January 2021 but recovered in February and March before a spectacular leap in April (reflecting the crash during SA’s first lockdown in 2020) and then reduced to numbers similar to 2020.
Cumulative pay-outs were 25% up at the end of September 2021 compared to September 2020 (see graph below).
“While the data doesn’t indicate accelerated growth, it does prove that the market is capable of stabilising under the right conditions. Further to this, it shows that, given the right nourishment, exponential increases can be realised.” closes Pieter Wessels.
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